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COVID-19 in Clarksville: Why 14-day totals matter more than daily numbers

COVID-19 in Clarksville: Why 14-day totals matter more than daily numbers

Director of the Montgomery County Health Department says COVID-19 data lags are normal. Photo: Clarksville Now


CLARKSVILLE, Tenn. (CLARKSVILLENOW) – On Tuesday, Montgomery County reported only 12 new positive cases of COVID-19, and 770 active cases, which indicated that the county might be flattening the curve after several high daily and active case counts over the last two weeks.

But today, Montgomery County reported 36 new cases, and a lower count of 695 active cases.

According to news released by the Tennessee Department of Health via Twitter, a lower number of tests were included in Tuesday’s count because of a systems issue.

Montgomery County Health Director Joey Smith said this kind of lag in the system is normal. It’s been ongoing throughout the reporting of COVID-19 numbers since March, and continues to be true of today’s count.

“There are 92 other counties ahead of us in line at the lab. Looking at the 14-day trend rather than the daily case count helps even out those days where we don’t get everything processed, because it happens often,” Smith said.

Why 14-day trend matters

In a normal day, Montgomery County processes between 430 and 530 tests. “If we have like a 1000-test-count day, know that it is probably including some numbers from the previous days that weren’t initially counted because of these system delays,” Smith said.

In addition to compensating for the lag in processing, the 14-day trend accounts for the full lifecycle of the virus. This would be why the 14-day trends are used to also calculate transmission rates, which are used by the government to make decisions about mandates and other pandemic-related policies.

“The 14-day trend is also what the White House Coronavirus Taskforce looks at when determining whether to code a county in the red, orange or green zone,” Smith said.

So, moving forward, Clarksville Now will include the 14-day trend in our coverage of the COVID-19 numbers, as shared by Joey Smith.

Tennova says it’s in good shape

Tennova Healthcare tells Clarksville Now that they have plenty capacity to continue treating those with COVID-19 and other patients needing non-COVID-related care. Here is a statement from Sandy Wooten, the director of community engagement for Tennova Healthcare – Clarksville:

Our hospital remains prepared to care for all patients who need medical attention, and we encourage patients experiencing a medical emergency to seek care promptly. Tennova Healthcare – Clarksville does have the capacity to hospitalize additional patients. As a reminder, care for any individuals with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 is delivered in a restricted, separate area from other patients. We also have adequate ventilators and PPE at this time to meet the needs of our patients. Patient numbers and unit bed availability are fluid throughout any day as patients are discharged and admitted.

We encourage our community to take action to reduce the spread of coronavirus. Practice social distancing, wear a face mask covering your nose and mouth, and wash your hands or use hand sanitizer often.

Our hospital has a total of 270 beds, 21 of these currently dedicated to intensive/critical care.

As a reminder, the CDC has advised against traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday as it may increase your chances of catching the virus. As cases continue to rise, the CDC have also said that celebrating virtually, or with the people you live with, is the safest choice this Thanksgiving.

COVID-19 numbers

Here are the Montgomery County numbers updated on the county’s dashboard as of today, Nov. 25:

  • 6,271 total confirmed cases since March 6
  • 695 active cases
  • 158 total hospitalizations
  • 83 total deaths
  • 62,608 total negative lab results

Here is the 14-day trends for Montgomery County, compiled by Director Smith:

In the last 14 days:
    • 1,175 new cases out of 6,950 tests
    • 10 Hospitalizations
    • 14 COVID-19 Deaths
    • 156 new School-age Cases (age 5-18)
In the previous 14 days:
    • 785 positives out of 6,003 tests.
    • 8 Hospitalizations
    • 10 COVID-19 Deaths
    • 111 new School-age Cases (age 5-18)

Here are the numbers from the Clarksville-Montgomery County School System on their respective dashboard:

  • 76 students with active cases
  • 1,272 students in quarantine
  • 44 school employees with confirmed cases
  • 54 school employees in quarantine
  • 273 CMCSS employees on COVID-19 related leave

Here are the Austin Peay State University numbers, which are continuing to decline according to their dashboard:

  • 20 students with confirmed cases
  • 109 students in quarantine
  • 12 staff and faculty members with confirmed cases
  • 31 staff and faculty members in quarantine

How to get a free COVID-19 test

Free COVID-19 testing is offered by the Montgomery County Health Department in a temporary location at Civitan Park, 650 Bellamy Lane, from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday-Friday. Follow the signs to the drive-up testing site.

On Monday, Nov. 30, the testing site will operate with extended hours, and will be open from from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m..

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